The Tories are preparing to scrap the BBC licence fee – Boris Johnson already admitted it months ago

For a man who supposedly wants the country to “come together” after leaving the EU, Boris Johnson seems strangely keen to keep picking fights, as if the Brexit referendum or election had not yet been won.

After a skirmish with Brussels on the trade talks, sacking the president of the COP26 climate summit and an attempt to divide and rule Westminster journalists, today we have a more traditional Tory attack on the BBC. (The judges will be along in a minute, with plans to clip the Supreme Court’s wings). Welcome to the permanent, Trump-like populist campaign. Architect: Dominic Cummings.

Nicky Morgan, the culture secretary, fired the opening shot in the government’s attempt to demolish the case for the ?154.50-a-year licence fee. Officially, her speech to the Policy Exchange think tank was about plans to decriminalise non-payment of the fee. Officially, she launched an eight-week “consultation exercise” on this. But the government has already decided the outcome. It is not asking an independent reviewer to assess the evidence because, when it tried that in 2015, David Perry QC opposed decriminalisation.

Morgan argued that the broadcasting landscape has changed since; you now need a licence to use the BBC iPlayer. Ministers claim fining people for non-payment clogs up the courts. Yet the Magistrates Association insists the 130,000 cases in 2018, while 10 per cent of the total number, account for less than one per cent of their sittings.

The BBC is worried that scrapping the criminal offence will encourage people not to pay, leaving it with ?200m a year less to spend on programmes. Budgets are already under pressure, as shown by last week’s decision to cut 450 jobs to save ?80m.

It’s an open secret that the government’s real agenda is the fee’s long-term future in the Netflix era. On paper, it is safe until 2027. But negotiations on the BBC’s next funding settlement will start later this year and take effect in April 2022.

The BBC accepts it needs to reach more younger viewers and become less London-centric. Morgan raised the prospect it becoming extinct if it failed to adapt, comparing it to the once-dominant video rental chain Blockbuster, now down to its last store.

Johnson rather gave the game away when he played the BBC card as diversionary tactic on a rare day of pressure – over the NHS – during the election. “The system of funding out of what is a general tax bears reflection,” he said. “How long can you justify a system whereby everybody who has a TV has to pay to fund a particular set of TV and radio channel?” Abolishing what Tories call a “poll tax” would be politically popular. One for the next Tory manifesto, perhaps?

Ministers insist the debate on the BBC’s future is totally separate from their criticism of the corporation’s coverage of Brexit and the election. But of course, it suits Team Boris to hold the sword of Damocles over the Beeb’s head as it ramps up the pressure over day-to-day coverage. Johnson allies complain the BBC adopts a negative “despite or because of Brexit” tone. They have banned ministers from Radio 4’s flagship Today programme, moaning that they are asked about “the story of the day” rather than the policy announcement they were booked to speak about. Which all sounds to me like sailors complaining about a rough sea; it goes with the job. As far as I could tell, the BBC upset Labour just as much as the Tories during the election, which suggests it got things about right.

The BBC would be forgiven for feeling under attack on all fronts. Johnson’s huge majority is not good news for it. Tory MPs ensured the election of Julian Knight as chair of the Culture Select Committee. He plans “an unofficial royal commission” to “ask difficult questions about the BBC’s future funding model”. Knight defeated fellow Tory Damian Collins, who headed a searching inquiry on disinformation which asked awkward questions of the Vote Leave campaign.

Morgan will leave the cabinet in an imminent reshuffle. The choice of her successor will provide another clue to Johnson’s intentions.

The BBC hopes its trump card in the difficult negotiations that lie ahead will be its very real contribution to the UK’s soft power, vital as Johnson tries to make his rather vague Global Britain vision a reality after Brexit. Along with the Premier League, it’s our most visible export. Answering questions after her speech, Morgan admitted the corporation was seen as “a beacon of British values” around the world. Her successor should remember that.

The danger is that for crude party political reasons, the Tories put so much financial pressure on the BBC that its reach will decline just when the country needs it most. That really would be cutting off their nose to spite their face.